As early as 1970, a UN resolution set the target for official development assistance (ODA) at 0.7% of gross national income (GNI). In 2020, only 6 of the 30 OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) members (Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom) were meeting that target. For the past 15 years, ODA spending levels among OECD donors have stagnated at about 0.35% of their GNI. Yet they now look set to fall below even those levels.
Aid as percentage of gross national income, selected donor countries, 2018-2027
Source: GEM Report SCOPE website https://www.education-progress.org/en/articles/finance-aid
Among these countries that were exceeding the target just a few years ago, the United Kingdom was the first to reduce its ODA spending from 0.7% to 0.5% of GNI in 2021, before announcing in February 2025 that this share would go down further to 0.3% by 2027. Germany announced steep cuts in 2023 while additional cuts were made to the federal ministry of development cooperation budget from €11.2 billion in 2024 to €10.3 billion in 2025, although levels to education are not to be affected.
The Netherlands, whose aid spending levels were close to the 0.7% target, also announced in February that it would reduce spending on international development by 30%, from 0.62% of GNI in 2024 to 0.44% in 2029. Belgium announced it will cut aid by 25% over the next five years. In December, the parliament of Switzerland approved cuts of USD 124 million to the 2025 budget and USD 363 million to the 2026–28 financial plan for bilateral and multilateral development cooperation, including its education contributions to UNESCO and the Global Partnership for Education. It plans to shut down development initiatives in Albania, Bangladesh and Zambia by 2028. In France, an decree in February 2024 cut aid by EUR 742 million, while a finance bill in 2025 reduced ODA budget appropriations by a further 37%.
Last but not least, the United States, which is the largest bilateral donor to education, has suspended 83% of its aid, which correspond to the portion administered by the United States Agency for International Development , since a stop work order in January. On top of confirmed cuts by Belgium, France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, if the suspended United States aid is confirmed, then the total loss would be equivalent to 14% or of the latest recorded aid to education levels.
Total direct aid to education, 2011–2023, and projections, 2024–2027
Source: GEM Report team estimates based on OECD CRS (2025), European Parliament (2025), Dyer (2025), Chadwick (2025), Focus 2030 (2025), Venro (2024), Bollag (2024), SEEK Development (2024), Belga (2025), House of Commons (2025) and Swissinfo (2025).
How will these cuts affect low-income countries?
In low-income countries, aid accounts for 12% of total education spending, including household contributions. In Niger, Rwanda and Sierra Leone, the share of aid is about 20%, while in the Central African Republic and The Gambia it reaches 50% of total education spending.
Those education systems that are particularly exposed to aid from donors who have announced significant cuts will therefore experience a large negative impact. In relative terms, it is expected that aid to education will fall by half in Chad and Liberia, and by one third in Madagascar and Mali. In absolute terms, aid to education levels will fall by USD 33 million in Ethiopia, 35 million in Rwanda and 51 million in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Expressed as a share of total education spending, the cuts represent 6% in Rwanda, 23% in Liberia and 45% in Somalia.
Estimated impact from announced cuts on aid to education in low-income countries by country
Note: The estimated absolute loss in million US dollars appears in brackets next to the country name.
Source: GEM Report team estimate based on OECD CRS data.
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