By Harry Anthony Patrinos, University of Arkansas; Tomasz Gajderowicz and Maciej Jakubowski, University of Warsaw; Alec Kennedy and Rolf Strietholt, IEA; and Christian Christrup Kjeldsen, University of Aarhus
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted all aspects of life, including education. To curb the virus spread, schools worldwide closed in March 2020, impacting over a billion children for an average of 5.5 months, with some regions facing longer interruptions. While necessary for public health, these closures had lasting effects on student learning. Even though schools have since reopened, some as late as 2022, the impact of the closures continues to be felt.
The learning losses threaten the achievement of the SDGs. The full extent of the learning loss is becoming clearer. Recent studies provide a closer look at how these disruptions continue to affect students globally. The findings reveal a staggering global decline in student achievement with lasting effects that may continue to worsen educational inequalities. However, the extent of these losses across different regions and demographics has been inadequately explored in global analyses.
The recent release of the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) data gives us the opportunity to assess the mathematics and science achievements of students in the fourth and eighth grades in 71 educational systems worldwide. This is the largest and most comprehensive investigation of the question of learning loss over time. It is more recent than other international assessments and it is more reliable than compilations of national studies (which are often confined to local contexts, vary by grade, demographic, and other characteristics).
TIMSS enables cross-country comparisons and offers long-term trend analysis, providing valuable insights into how the pandemic’s educational disruptions have affected student learning in middle- and high-income countries around the world. The study includes both grade 4 and grade 8 students. By incorporating detailed data on school closure durations and their varied impacts, it provides a more global and comprehensive understanding of how the length and nature of school disruptions influenced student outcomes.
A global crisis with regional nuances
The consequences of these extended closures are far-reaching, leading to a loss of half-years’ worth of learning in two core subjects, mathematics and science. There were disproportionate effects affecting girls and linguistic minorities negatively. For many students, particularly low achievers, the learning losses have been severe, deepening pre-existing educational inequalities.
Compared to pre-pandemic trends, global student achievement fell by an average of 0.11 standard deviations in 2023. These represent a notable decline in performance. Even more alarming, the effect sizes are up to twice as large for vulnerable students (0.22 standard deviations). There was a substantial deviation from the trends of recent years in the school closure-affected cohorts in grade 8 in mathematics and science. The losses were less severe in grade 4.
The scale of the learning loss varied significantly. Countries that experienced longer periods of school closures tend to report more significant declines in student performance.
The need for equitable recovery
The findings from TIMSS 2023 underscore the urgent need for focused recovery efforts, particularly for the most vulnerable students. The learning losses experienced during the pandemic could have long-term economic and non-economic consequences, potentially affecting the future earning potential and civic engagement of an entire generation of students. This is not only a crisis for education systems but for future economic and political stability as well.
Policymakers must prioritize recovery strategies that address these learning gaps and work towards reducing inequalities. Such strategies could include targeted tutoring programs, increased investment in digital education tools, and policies that address the specific needs of disadvantaged students. Additionally, international cooperation and sharing of best practices are essential to ensure that countries most affected by the pandemic’s educational disruptions can access the resources they need to rebuild. While this study uses data from middle- and high-income countries, we fear the findings also apply to low-income countries, which may be even more affected and in need of greater support and international solidarity.
Moving forward
As the world continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the education sector must not ignore the deep and lasting effects on learning. While it is clear that many students have faced significant setbacks, it is also evident that there is hope for recovery—if the right strategies are implemented.
The key to overcoming this crisis lies in targeted, equitable interventions that support the most vulnerable students. Whether through remedial education programs or more inclusive educational policies, there is a clear need for action. The road to recovery will be long, but with focused effort, the educational setbacks of the pandemic can be mitigated.
The COVID-19 learning crisis has highlighted not only the fragility of global education systems but also the deep inequalities that persist within them. By addressing these challenges head-on, we can build a more resilient and equitable education system for the future, ensuring that all students, regardless of their background, have the opportunity to succeed.
Find the paper containing the full findings here.
Recommended citation:
Gajderowicz, T., Jakubowski, M., Kennedy, A., Kjeldsen, C., Patrinos, H, Strietholt, R. (2024). The Learning Crisis: Three Years after COVID-19. Working Paper. https://edre.uark.edu/_resources/pdf/edrewp-2024-08.pdf